We’ve finally had more than 20 single-family homes sold in Oceanport this year, so we can do a valid statistical comparison with the real estate market a year ago. The news is good: as of June 30th the median price of a single-family home in Oceanport is up 9% compared to what it was a year ago. This is welcome news to Oceanport home owners (or home sellers), especially since there was a 5% decrease in the median home sales price in the 2013 calendar year. The change in the median price is one of the 4 key, objective indicators you should know if you’re following Oceanport real estate.
The 2nd indicator is the number of homes that have sold so far year-to-date. In Oceanport, there have been 29% more sales this year compared to the same 6 month period in 2013. An increase in the number of sales indicates an increase in demand, and higher demand normally results in higher prices in the near future.
The 3rd indicator is the number of homes that are listed for sale. Here I look at an average of the past 12 months, and I find that we’ve had 37% more listings in Oceanport than we did one year ago. More listings indicates an increase in supply, and more supply tends to result in lower prices in the near future because buyers have more choices.
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The last indicator is an important one: it’s the real estate absorption rate. This is a calculation of how long it would take to sell ALL of the homes currently listed for sale, assuming that homes continue to sell at the same rate as they have in the past 12 months. The reason that it’s so important is that it takes into account both supply and demand. For this indicator, it’s important to look at both the number itself and the change from one year ago. An absorption rate of 5 – 7 months is considered a “normal market”, more than 7 months is a “buyer’s market” and less than 5 months is a “seller’s market”. One year ago the Oceanport absorption rate was 6.4 months, and currently it’s 7.8 months, so we’ve moved from a “normal market” into a “buyer’s market”, despite the fact that home prices are up 9%.
Here are the 4 objective indicators in tabular form:
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Oceanport Home Sales, Jan 1 - Jun 30
2013 2014 Comment
Sales (Demand) 21 27 29% more homes sold
Listings* (Supply) 27 37 37% more homes on market.
Months' Supply* 6.4 7.8 Weaker demand vs. supply.
*based on the past 12 months
Median Sale $ $380,000 $415,000 9% higher median price.
The bottom line is that the 4 key real estate indicators are evenly split: 2 are predicting higher Oceanport home prices and 2 are predicting lower prices in the near future. If you’re considering selling a home in Oceanport, I’ll be glad to go over the statistical information in more detail with you, give you an estimate of what your home is worth in the current market, and give you a detailed proposal for a marketing plan to sell your home as quickly as possible for as high a price as possible.
Call, text or email me!
Len
Leonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
REALTOR® Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760
