According to the most recent (February) S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, nationwide home prices are 12.9% higher than a year ago, and nearby in Fair Haven, home prices are up 19%. So what’s happening in Little Silver?
If you’ve been following my posts you know I don’t calculate any year-to-year percentage changes until there are at least 20 home sales in both years; calculations based on fewer than 20 data points are not considered statistically significant. Little Silver is a small town, and even after 4 months we’ve had fewer than 20 sales, so I’m only going to give you the raw data. From January 1st to April 30th, the median sales price was $523,500 this year and $500,000 last year.
The median sales price is one of 4 key, objective indicators I use to assess the local real estate market. When the median price goes down, it’s good news for home buyers but bad news for home sellers. The 2nd key indicator is the number of sales. Year-to-date, 14 Little Silver homes have sold compared to 19 in the same period in 2013. Fewer sales normally predict lower prices in the near future (but remember: don’t draw any conclusions based on fewer than 20 sales).
Find out what's happening in Little Silver-Oceanportwith free, real-time updates from Patch.
The number of homes listed for sale declined from 33 to 24, and that’s based on a 12-month average so that indicator is down 27% (fewer listings normally predict higher prices and more listings normally predict lower prices).
The good news for Little Silver home sellers is that the real estate absorption rate is 3.3 months now, compared to 5.7 months a year ago. The real estate absorption rate is a calculation of how many months it would take to sell ALL of the homes currently listed for sale, assuming that homes continue to sell at the same rate that they have in the past 12 months. It takes into account both supply (i.e., inventory) and demand (i.e., sales). An absorption rate of 5 – 7 months is considered a “normal market”, whereas greater than 7 months is considered a “buyer’s market” and less than 5 months is considered a “seller’s market”. The absorption rate tells us that Little Silver was in a “normal market” last year, but we’re now in a “seller’s market”.
Find out what's happening in Little Silver-Oceanportwith free, real-time updates from Patch.
Here are the 4 objective real estate indicators in tabular form:
2013 2014 Comments
Sales (Demand) 19 14
Listings* (Supply) 33 24 27% fewer listings.
Months' Supply* 5.7 3.3 Demand vs Supply much
stronger.
*Based on the prior 12 months
Median Sale $ $500,000 $523,500
If you’ve been thinking of selling your home in Little Silver, you need to know that we’ve been in a “seller’s market” since last July, so you’ll probably get more for your home than you would have a year ago. We just had a reassessment in Little Silver, so if you’re a Little Silver resident you know what your home is worth for property tax purposes. That number may or may not reflect a home’s current market value; that’s the amount an informed buyer is willing to pay an informed seller. If you’d like, I’d be glad to give you a free comparative market analysis estimating what your home would sell for in the current real estate market. No obligation, of course.
Len
Leonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
REALTOR® Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760
(732) 239-0739 (cell) (732) 530-6686 (office
http://www.rumsonfairhavenhome.com
@ListWithLen
